Temperatures are forecast to be about 5 degrees warmer today than yesterday, and a good 15-20 degrees above seasonal averages. Clear skies and below freezing temperatures overnight have allowed the snowpack a solid re-freeze. But clear skies and generally light winds will allow solar aspects to warm quickly today. It’s still mid-winter on the calendar and so the February sun is relatively low in the sky meaning that north-facing slopes will not receive as much solar radiation as east and south facing aspects. The sun has already depleted much of the snowpack on those slopes which means that loose wet avalanches will have limited terrain and limited snow to move down the hill. East to southeast facing gullies and cirques, especially near rock bands and tree cover will be most likely to have wet instabilities.
Just a ridgeline away, on northeast to northwest facing slopes the snow is still cold and wintry, especially above ~9500’. The layers of weak, sugary snow that we have been monitoring all season can still be found throughout the snowpack and their strength has waxed and waned depending on conditions. The lack of substantial precipitation means that the snow on top of these layers is not heavy enough to overpower their limited strength. If the prevailing weather pattern retrogrades offshore and new storms become possible these layers may become more of an issue.
Until then, coverage remains thin and obstacles abound. Be wary of rocks and logs just below the snow surface. Early in the day, and as slopes re-freeze in the afternoon, hard and fast conditions could turn a simple fall into a dangerous slide. Crampons might be a good idea.
