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Good morning, this is Sue Burak with the Inyo National Forest Eastern Sierra Avalanche Center with an advisory posted for Thursday, May 15, 2008.
Thanks to all of you who took the time to write a letter of support. Most of the letters came from out of the area, with a couple coming from back east. Look for your letters in the 2008 annual report which will be coming out in mid June.
The end of advisory posting is nearing. Advisories will end next weekend after Memorial Day.
MOUNTAIN WEATHER
The well advertised warm-up has begun. Temperatures at 6 AM are well above freezing, with Main Lodge reporting a morning low of 41 F. Tioga Pass at 10,000 ft is already 37 F with gusty winds. Winds have been gusting to 100 mph on the top of the mountain with Ellery Lake and Lake Sabrina reporting gusts over 50 mph.
After one final windy day in the alpine regions today, Friday and the weekend will have relatively calm winds unless you happen to be in the vicinity of a thunderstorm Saturday night. Highs will reach 60 F above 10,000ft., and highs above 13,000 ft will reach close to 50 F. Lows are going up also with no freezing temperatures forecasted for the next 5 days. Lows may only reach the upper 30’s and low 40’s. Expect cooler temperatures next week with the possibility of a dramatic cool down by mid week.
SNOWPACK AND AVALANCHE DISCUSSION
Expect the snowmelt to accelerate this weekend. Most shallow snowpacks will gone by Sunday with only the high elevation bowls retaining snow into June. Also expect stream crossings to get tricky by mid morning.
With several days of poor night time freezing, snow conditions could become very soft and weak in the morning hours. Snow sensors show water draining from the snow at all elevations. Even with the forecasted cool down next week, the pack will continue to melt. Stability has improved but the pattern for wet slides over the last three seasons, show wet slide activity occurs after 3 to 4 days of low temperatures greater than 32 F.
For the weekend, it might not be possible to go early and travel over a well frozen surface. Pay attention to what is going on around you instead of following the person in front. Avalanches are still possible this time of year. The avalanche danger rating is LOW this morning, rising to MODERATE by noon.
BOTTOM LINE
The avalanche danger rating is LOW this morning, rising to MODERATE by noon.
Please note that the avalanche danger rating in this advisory expires in 24 hours. This advisory is our best interpretation of snow pack conditions and NWS forecasts issued today. Backcountry travelers should be aware that elevation and geographic distinctions are approximate and that a transition zone exists between upper and lower elevations.
Avalanches do not happen by accident and most human involvement is a matter of choice not chance. Most avalanche accidents are caused by slab avalanches that are triggered by the victim of member of the victim's party. Even small slides can be dangerous. Always practice route finding skills and carry avalanche rescue gear. Remember that avalanche danger ratings are only general guidelines. Distinctions between geographic areas, elevations, slope aspects and slope angles should be made.
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